Long-term trend analysis of liver cancer survival rate in Qidong region, Jiangsu Province, 1972-2019 / 中华肝脏病杂志

Objective: To analyze the incidence and survival rate of liver cancer cases in the entire population in the Qidong region from 1972 to 2019, so as to provide a basis for prognosis evaluation, prevention, and treatment. Methods: The observed survival rate (OSR) and relative survival rate (RSR) of 34 805 cases of liver cancer in the entire Qidong region population from 1972 to 2019 were calculated using Hakulinen's method with SURV3.01 software. Hakulinen's likelihood ratio test was used for statistical analysis. Age-standardized relative survival (ARS) was calculated using the International Cancer Survival Standard. The Joinpoint regression analysis was performed with Joinpoint 4.7.0.0 software to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of the liver cancer survival rate. Results: 1-ASR increased from 13.80% in 1972-1977 to 50.20% in 2014-2019, while 5-ASR increased from 1.27% in 1972-1977 to 27.64% in 2014-2019. The upward trend of RSR over eight periods was statistically significant (χ (2) = 3045.29, P < 0.001). Among them, male 5-ASR was 0.90%, 1.80%, 2.33%, 4.92%, 5.43%, 7.05%, 10.78%, and 27.78%, and female 5-ASR was 2.33%, 1.51%, 3.35%, 3.92%, 3.84%, 7.18%, 11.45%, and 29.84%, respectively. There was a statistically significant difference in RSR between males and females (χ (2) = 45.68, P < 0.001). The 5-RSR for each age group of 25-34 years old, 35-44 years old, 45-54 years old, 55-64 years old, 65-74 years old, and 75 years old were 4.92%, 5.29%, 8.17%, 11.70%, 11.63%, and 9.60%, respectively. There were statistically significant differences in RSR among different age groups (χ (2) = 501.29, P < 0.001). The AAPC in Qidong region from 1972 to 2019 for 1-ARS, 3-ASR, and 5-ARS were 5.26% (t = 12.35, P < 0.001), 8.10% (t = 15.99, P < 0.001), and 8.96 % (t = 16.06, P < 0.001), respectively. The upward trend was statistically significant in all cases. The AAPC of 5-ARS was 9.82% in males (t = 14.14, P < 0.001), and 8.79% in females (t = 11.48, P < 0.001), and the upward trend was statistically significant in both. The AAPC of 25-34 years old, 35-44 years old, 45-54 years old, 55-64 years old, 65-74 years old, and 75 years old were 5.37% (t = 5.26, P = 0.002), 5.22% (t = 5.66, P = 0.001), 7.20% (t = 6.88, P < 0.001), 10.00% (t = 12.58, P < 0.001), 9.96% (t = 7.34, P < 0.001) and 8.83% (t = 3.51, P = 0.013), and the upward trend was statistically significant. Conclusion: The overall survival rate of registered cases of liver cancer in the Qidong region's entire population has greatly improved, but there is still much room for improvement. Hence, constant attention should be paid to the study on preventing and treating liver cancer.

Epidemic characteristics of stomach cancer mortality in Qidong during 1972-2016 / 中华肿瘤杂志

Objective: To describe the epidemic characteristics of stomach cancer mortality in Qidong between 1972 and 2016. Methods: The cancer registry data of stomach cancer death and population during 1972-2016 in Qidong was collected. The mortality of crude rate (CR), China age-standardized rate (CASR), world age-standardized rate (WASR), 35-64 years truncated rate, 0-74 years cumulative rate, cumulative risk, percentage change (PC), annual percent change (APC) were calculated. Results: During 1972-2016, a total of 15 863 (male: 10 114, female: 5 749) deaths occurred attributed to stomach cancer, accounting for 16.04% of all cancers, with CR of 31.37/100 000 (CASR: 12.97/100 000, WASR: 21.39/100 000). The truncated rate of 35-64, cumulative rate of 0-74, and cumulative risk were 28.86/100 000, 2.54%, and 2.51%, respectively. For male, the CR, CASR, WASR were 40.53/100 000, 17.98/100 000, 30.13/100 000, respectively, and for female, the CR, CASR, WASR were 22.45/100 000, 8.52/100 000, 13.92/100 000, respectively. Age-specific mortality analysis showed that the mortality of each age group under 25-year-old group was less than 1/100 000. The CR increased with age. The 50-year-old group reached and exceeded the average mortality of the population, and more than 80-year-old group reached the peak of death. During 1972-2016 in Qidong, The PCs in CR, CASR, and WASR of stomach cancer were 55.43%, -52.02%, -43.60%. The APC were 0.54%, -2.30%, -2.08%, respectively. Period mortality analysis showed that except for the 75-year-old group, the mortality of stomach cancer decreased significantly. Conclusions: The crude mortality of stomach cancer increases slightly in Qidong, while the CASR and WASR decrease significantly. However, stomach cancer is still one of the malignant tumors that most affect health and seriously threat lives.

Long-term trend of colorectal cancer survival rate in Qidong, 1972-2016 / 中华肿瘤杂志

Objective: The survival of colorectal cancer in Qidong City, Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2016 was analyzed to provide a basis for the evaluation of prognosis and the formulation of prevention and control measures. Methods: Colorectal cancer data were obtained from the Qidong Cancer Registration and Reporting System, and the follow-up was up to December 31, 2021. The observed survival rate (OSR) and relative survival rate (RSR) were calculated by SURV 3.01 software, and the trend test was performed by Hakulinen's likelihood ratio test. The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of survival, and the ARIMA model was used to predict the trend of colorectal cancer survival. Results: There were 8 637 new cases of colorectal cancer in Qidong from 1972 to 2016. Dividing 1972-2016 into 9 periods at 5-year intervals, the 5-year OSR from 1972-1976 to 2012-2016 increased from 21.86% to 48.86%, and the 5-year RSR increased from 26.45% to 59.91%. The increasing trend of RSR was statistically significant (χ(2)=587.47, P<0.001). From 1972 to 2016, the survival rates of colorectal cancer in different sexes in Qidong were similar, and the 5-year RSR was 44.63% for men and 44.07% for women. Since the 1990s, the 5-year OSR and RSR for men have been lower than those for women. From 1972 to 2016, the 5-year RSR of colorectal cancer in Qidong was significantly improved in the 65-74 and ≥75-year-old groups, but the survival rate of the ≥75-year-old group was still the lowest (36.78%), followed by the 35-44-year-old group ( 43.04%). The time trend showed that the overall AAPC of colorectal cancer 5-year RSR in Qidong from 1972 to 2016 was 2.50% (t=16.45, P<0.001). The upward trend of different sexes was consistent, and the increase was greater in women (AAPC for males=2.18%, AAPC for females=2.54%, both P<0.05). The 5-year RSR of colorectal cancer in each age group showed an upward trend, and the AAPCs of the 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, and ≥75-year-old groups were 1.54%, 1.83%, 2.00%, 3.51% and 4.35%, respectively (all P<0.05). The prediction results of colorectal cancer survival rate showed that the 5-year RSR of colorectal cancer in Qidong will increase to 71.62% by 2026. Conclusions: The overall survival rate of colorectal cancer patients in Qidong has been greatly improved, but there is still room for improvement. We should continue to pay attention to the early diagnosis and early treatment of colorectal cancer.

Long-term trend of gastric cancer survival rate in Qidong, 1972-2016 / 中华肿瘤杂志

Objective: The survival rate of gastric cancer cases in the whole population of Qidong City of Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2016 was analyzed to provide a data basis for prevention and control of gastric cancer. Methods: The observed survival rate (OSR) was calculated by the life table method, the relative survival rate (RSR) was calculated by SURV 3.01 software, and the trend test was performed by Hakulinen's likelihood ratio test. Age-standardized relative survival rate (ARSR) was calculated using the International Cancer Survival Standard (ICSS). The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of survival rate, and the trend analysis of the overall survival rate of gastric cancer and the survival rates of different sexes and ages was conducted. The ARIMA model was used to predict the survival rate. Results: From 1972 to 2016, there were 18 067 new cases of gastric cancer in Qidong City. The OSRs at 1, 5, and 10 years were 37.12%, 17.16%, and 12.86%, respectively, and the RSRs at 1, 5, and 10 years were 38.83%, 21.73%, and 21.20%. Dividing 1972-2016 into 9 periods at 5-year intervals, compared with 1972-1976, the 5-year RSR in 2012-2016 increased from 12.53% to 36.26%, and the RSR in the 9 periods increased with statistical significance (χ(2)=747.19, P<0.001). Both OSR and RSR were slightly higher in men than in women, and decreased with age. The AAPC results showed that the AAPC of the 5-year RSR of gastric cancer in Qidong was 2.88%, 2.75% in males and 3.05% in females, and the upward trend was statistically significant (P<0.001). From 1972 to 2016, the 5-year RSR of gastric cancer in all age groups showed an upward trend. Except for the 35-44-year-old group (AAPC=1.07%, t=2.16, P=0.067), the age groups had statistical significance ( AAPC=2.59% in the 45-54-year-old group, AAPC=3.19% in the AAPCs of other 55-64-year-old group, AAPC=3.99% in the 65-74-year-old group, and AAPC=2.97% in the 75-year-old group, all P<0.05). The prediction results of the ARIMA model showed that in 2026, the 5-year OSR of gastric cancer in Qidong will increase to 39.82%, and the 5-year RSR will increase to 49.23%. Conclusion: The overall survival rate of registered gastric cancer cases in Qidong has been greatly improved, but there is still large room for improvement. More attention should be paid to the prevention and treatment of gastric cancer.

Long-term survival trends of gastric cancer patients between 1972 and 2011 in Qidong / 癌症

<p><b>BACKGROUND</b>There have been few reports on long-term survival of gastric cancer patients. This study analyzed the survival data of gastric cancer patients obtained from the population-based Qidong Cancer Registry between 1972 and 2011, providing a basis for evaluation of gastric cancer treatment and prognosis.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>The cumulative observed survival rate and relative survival rate of gastric cancer patients were calculated using Hakulinen's method via the SURV3.01 software, which was developed by the Finnish Cancer Registry. The date of the last follow-up for the survival status of the 15,401 registered cases was April 30, 2012.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The 1-, 5-, 10-, 20-, and 30-year observed survival rates were 33.82%, 14.18%, 10.35%, 6.63%, and 4.19%, respectively, and the 1-, 5-, 10-, 20-, and 30-year relative survival rates were 35.43%, 18.13%, 17.50%, 21.96%, and 32.84%, respectively. For males, the corresponding observed survival rates were 34.50%, 14.40%, 10.42%, 6.46%, and 4.05%, and the corresponding relative survival rates were 36.23%, 18.67%, 18.28%, 23.73%, and 38.61%. For females, the corresponding observed survival rates were 32.62%, 13.80%, 10.22%, 6.95%, and 4.46%, and the corresponding relative survival rates were 34.03%, 17.21%, 16.28%, 19.70%, and 26.78%. Significant differences in relative survival rates were observed between sexes (P = 0.003). For the 15-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, and 75+ age groups, the 5-year relative survival rates were 16.13%, 21.77%, 18.63%, 12.61%, 7.99%, and 2.94%, respectively, and the 10-year relative survival rates were 16.49%, 22.83%, 20.50%, 15.97%, 15.88%, and 15.73%, respectively. Remarkable improvement could be observed for the 5-, 10-, and 15-year relative survival rates in Qidong beginning in the 1980s.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The survival outcome of registered gastric cancer cases in Qidong showed gradual progress over the past two decades.</p>

Trends in the mortality of liver cancer in Qidong, China: an analysis of fifty years / 中华肿瘤杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To describe and analyze the charecteristics and trends of liver cancer mortality during the past fifty years in Qidong, China.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Retrospective mortality survey was conducted to get the data on liver cancer death in the period of 1958-1971, and the data from 1972 to 2007 were obtained from the records of cancer registration in Qidong. The crude mortality rate (CR) of liver cancer, and age-standardized rate by Chinese population (CASR) and by world population (WASR) were calculated and analyzed. The total percent changes (PC) and annual percent changes (APC) were used for evaluating the increasing trends of the mortality. The sex-specific rate, age-specific rate, truncated rate of the age group 35 - 64, cumulative rate of the age group 0-74, cumulative risk, period-rate, and the rate for age-birth cohort were compared.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The natural death rate in Qidong residents for the past five-decade period experienced a wave interval of 8.62‰ in 1958 down to 5.37‰ in 1979, and up to 7.75‰ in 2007. The mortality rate for all-site cancers was increased from 56.69 per 100, 000 to 234.97 per 100, 000. The mortality rate of liver cancer, being 20.45 per 100, 100 in 1958 was increased to 49.04 per 100, 000 in 1972, and up to 69.29 per 100, 000 in 2007. According to the registration data of 1972 - 2007, the death from liver cancer was accounted for 34.88% of all deaths due to cancers, with a CR of 58.86 per 100, 000, CASR of 38.36 per 100, 000, and WASR, 49.37 Per 100, 000 in Qidong. The truncated rate for the age group 35 - 64 was 117.08 per 100, 000, and the cumulative rate for the age group 0-74 and the cumulative risk were 5.15% and 5.02%, respectively. The CRs for males was 90.52 per 100, 000 and for females was 27.93 per 100, 000, with a sex ratio of 3.24:1. For the period of 1972 - 2007, the PC for CR was 49.71%, and APC was +1.41%, showing an increasing variation tendency. The APCs for CASR and WASR, however, were decreasing, with a percentage of -1.11%, and -0.84%, respectively. The age-specific mortality rates by period showed a decreasing trend for those under age of 44. Moreover, age-birth cohort analysis showed a more rapid lowering mortality in the age groups 35-, 30-, 25-, and 15-, that is, those born after 1950's.</p><p><b>CONCLUSIONS</b>Liver cancer remains the leading death cause due to cancers in Qidong, with a continuing higher crude mortality rate. Yet the age-standardized mortality rate has presented a declining posture. The liver cancer mortality in young people in Qidong demonstrates a continuously falling trend. The campaign for the control of liver cancer in Qidong has achieved initial success.</p>

Trend on mortality changes for lung cancer during 1972-2011 in Qidong,Jiangsu / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To study the trend of mortality changes on lung cancer during the period 1972 to 2011 in Qidong.Methods Cancer registration data from 1972-2011 in Qidong was used to analyze the following information as:crude mortality rate (CR) of lung cancer,the agestandardized rates by China population (CASR) and the World population (WASR),the truncated mortality rate of 35-64,the accunulative rate of age from 0 to 74 years old,the accumulative risk,and the total percentage over all sites of cancers.The changcs on the trend of mortality by gender,age and period were analyzed.Results The CR of lung cancer was 31.15 per 100 000 (males:45.68,females:16.95).While CASR and WASR were 14.04,and 22.95 per 100 000,respectively.The truncated rate was 31.82 per 100 000.Accumulative rate,accumulative risk,and total percentage were 2.93％,2.89％,and 20.50％ respectively.The mortality rate of lung cancer in males was significantly higher than that in females,with a sex ratio of 2.69:1.CRs increased remarkably with age among those 30-year-olds,with P value being 0.000.When compared with 9 periods of 1972,1973-1977,1978-1982,1983-1987,1988-1992,1993-1997,1998-2002,2003-2007,and 2008-2011,the CRs,CASRs and WASRs increased 6.78-folds,1.60-folds and 1.92-folds,respectively,with the average annual percentage changes (APC) as 4.78％,1.86％ and 2.04％,respectively.Conclusion The mortality rate of lung cancer among residents during the last four decades in Qidong had been increasing remarkably,suggesting that special attention on lung cancer trend should be highly paid.